Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5210…ba8b sports 45 markets active 7d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,042 (-12%) realized −$4,042 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$776per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$522est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$4,101
crypto 6% −$219
other 1% +$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -23.1%
≤30d 45 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 44% -20.6%
≤90d 45 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 44% -20.6%
all 45 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 44% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 44% -20.6%
10% -27.4% 44% -28.2%
15% ← realistic here -34.4% 29% -35.1%
20% -40.8% 16% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$766) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$338 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,042
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$522
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage6d
Avg bet$776
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -96%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $66 −$41 -62%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $35 +$31 +88%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $47 −$11 -25%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $32 +$15 +46%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $574 −$132 -23%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $498 −$129 -26%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $342 +$99 +29%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $768 −$187 -24%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $345 +$185 +54%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $659 −$64 -10%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Jun 07 $721 −$54 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $355 +$108 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$12 +116%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $314 −$310 -99%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $766 −$452 -59%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $906 −$140 -15%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $638 +$269 +42%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 07 $509 +$128 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $408 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $204 +$87 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $299 −$91 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $207 +$179 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $205 +$104 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $410 +$199 +48%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Ruslan Tiukaev vs Lorenzo Bocchi Jun 07 $3,927 −$2,362 -60%
ITF Cuiaba: Nicolas Oliveira vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 06 $1,958 +$857 +44%
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona Jun 06 $1,483 +$475 +32%
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 06 $3,356 −$823 -24%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $6,073 −$332 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2,125 +$513 +24%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $1,599 +$525 +33%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 06 $1,107 +$492 +44%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dimitris Azoidis Jun 06 $43 −$43 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $23 +$20 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $36 −$10 -28%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $103 −$102 -99%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $111 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $517 −$510 -99%
Heilbronn: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Henri Squire Jun 05 $652 −$135 -21%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $2,116 −$1,777 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Valencia vs. Joventut SELL Valencia 31¢ $25 6d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 79¢ $66 6d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate SELL Carlos Maria Zarate 99¢ $66 6d
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 52¢ $35 6d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 48¢ $35 6d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 62¢ $47 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 100¢ $47 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 68¢ $32 6d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 63¢ $133 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Marin Cilic 54¢ $0 8d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 73¢ $130 8d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 22¢ $130 8d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $6 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Marin Cilic 56¢ $6 8d
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 60¢ $362 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Marin Cilic 51¢ $362 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Marin Cilic 60¢ $441 8d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering SELL Benjamin Bonzi 100¢ $441 8d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering BUY Benjamin Bonzi 80¢ $11 8d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering BUY Benjamin Bonzi 77¢ $331 8d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 100¢ $343 8d
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 69¢ $239 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records