Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x520d…a3ef crypto 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$252 (+2%) realized +$252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate28%181W / 471L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,055
7 days−$1,036
14 days−$1,028
30 days−$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -44.9% -50.1% 9% 8% -32.3%
≤30d 387 -42.0% -47.6% 12% 10% -20.0%
≤90d 652 -29.5% -36.2% 28% 18% -18.1%
all 652 -29.5% -36.2% 28% 18% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 18% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 13% -26.0%
15% -47.9% 9% -33.1%
20% -53.0% 7% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses181 / 471
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)652 / 296
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 652 Trades
no open positions (421 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$5 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 27? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$12 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$4 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 14¢ $17 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 87¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 87¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 91¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 91¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 91¢ $55 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 78¢ $98 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 78¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 78¢ $33 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 47¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 48¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 50¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 57¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 57¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 51¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 52¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records