Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x520a…ade0 sports 197 markets active 11h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-1%) realized −$57 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%79W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$73
14 days+$15
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$618
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +36.2% +23.2% 75% 70% -0.0%
≤30d 70 -9.8% -18.4% 53% 46% -15.4%
≤90d 190 -26.9% -33.8% 41% 35% -16.8%
all 196 -25.7% -32.8% 40% 35% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 35% -15.6%
10% -39.2% 31% -23.7%
15% -45.1% 27% -31.1%
20% -50.5% 19% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses79 / 117
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage108d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 40¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$15 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$21 +83%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$36 +71%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$33 +128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$1 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$8 +151%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$7 -73%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $5 +$19 +365%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 +$9 +38%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$17 +66%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$16 +64%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $67 −$26 -40%
LoL: FN Esports vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $37 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $49 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $50 +$24 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $50 −$23 -45%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $101 −$85 -84%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $25 +$18 +73%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $25 +$21 +84%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $12 +$11 +94%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $25 +$14 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $27 −$2 -7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $25 +$4 +15%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $56 −$5 -9%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 26 $25 −$4 -14%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 25 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $25 +$14 +57%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner May 24 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $115 −$14 -12%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner May 23 $25 +$12 +46%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 23 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $51 +$62 +121%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 23 $35 +$13 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $51 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $25 13h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 2¢ $1 16h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 68¢ $34 16h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 52¢ $23 16h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 52¢ $25 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $25 43h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $2 46h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 80¢ $84 46h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 46¢ $51 46h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 100¢ $58 46h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 43¢ $25 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 56¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $101 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $72 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $25 2d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 68¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 47¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 18¢ $5 3d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner SELL Misa Esports 6¢ $3 3d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 21¢ $10 3d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 21¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Legacy 100¢ $35 5d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner SELL BOMBA Team 99¢ $42 5d
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BOMBA Team 59¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 72¢ $25 5d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 100¢ $42 6d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 60¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.12 · official $48.12 (match) · 470 history records