Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5209…3555 crypto 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$172 (+5%) realized +$173 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%90W / 76L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$16
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$152
politics 21% +$2
other 8% $0
tech 2% +$8
weather 1% +$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 36 +15.8% +4.8% 61% 61% +6.4%
≤90d 130 -14.0% -22.2% 46% 46% -42.8%
all 166 -6.1% -15.0% 54% 44% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 44% -5.6%
10% -23.2% 42% -14.6%
15% -30.6% 40% -22.9%
20% -37.4% 40% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses90 / 76
Open positions24
Markets (closed)166 / 190
History coverage230d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $4 +$3 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $4 +$3 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.29 · official $28.29 (match) · 358 history records