Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5209…dd61 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$225 (-24%) realized −$190 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%6W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days−$269
14 days−$271
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$251
crypto 8% −$57
world 4% −$30
sports 3% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -41.5% -47.1% 21% 21% -41.6%
≤30d 30 -40.5% -46.2% 20% 20% -41.0%
≤90d 30 -40.5% -46.2% 20% 20% -41.0%
all 30 -40.5% -46.2% 20% 20% -41.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 20% -41.0%
10% -51.3% 17% -46.6%
15% -56.0% 17% -51.8%
20% -60.3% 13% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$21 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$190
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses6 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage13d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $39 $25 −$14 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $53 +$44 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $157 −$150 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 +$49 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $32 −$16 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $21 −$14 -67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $48 +$62 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$35 +329%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$34 +324%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$2 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $105 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 79¢ $97 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $53 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $157 35h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $105 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 85¢ $45 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.63 · official $103.63 (match) · 68 history records