Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
52 0x5207…686b other 214 markets active 10h ago coverage 200d ⚠
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,001 (+15%) realized +$16,897 · open +$2,104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate74%138W / 49L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$24,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$211
30 days+$1,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$5,108
politics 28% +$4,039
world 19% −$73
sports 9% +$1,310
tech 1% +$850
finance 1% +$789
culture 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.4% -25.2% 80% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 27 +17.7% +6.5% 67% 44% -2.8%
≤90d 133 +19.2% +7.8% 77% 57% -0.9%
all 187 +24.9% +13.0% 74% 57% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 57% +0.7%
10% +2.2% 39% -8.9%
15% -7.7% 24% -17.7%
20% -16.8% 14% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$561) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$147 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$24,906
Realized+$16,897
Unrealized+$2,104
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses138 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions27
Markets (closed)187 / 214
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$585
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $4,453 $4,742 +$289 (+6%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $4,093 $4,676 +$583 (+14%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 71¢ 97¢ $2,649 $3,629 +$980 (+37%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $1,997 $2,024 +$27 (+1%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $2,092 $1,793 −$299 (-14%)
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? Yes 61¢ 80¢ $876 $1,149 +$273 (+31%)
Will Steven Gerrard be the next manager of Manchester City FC? No 99¢ 100¢ $983 $992 +$9 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 61¢ 62¢ $979 $984 +$5 (+0%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? No 83¢ 94¢ $860 $980 +$120 (+14%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $762 $768 +$6 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $673 $700 +$26 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-11 House seat? No 96¢ 97¢ $514 $523 +$9 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $472 $495 +$23 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 81¢ $398 $421 +$23 (+6%)
Will Jurgen Klopp be the next manager of Manchester City FC? No 99¢ 100¢ $248 $251 +$2 (+1%)
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? No 54¢ 48¢ $272 $244 −$28 (-10%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Premier League next? No 90¢ 92¢ $193 $197 +$4 (+2%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No 32¢ 52¢ $120 $193 +$73 (+61%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? Yes 65¢ 70¢ $59 $64 +$4 (+8%)
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $45 $29 −$16 (-36%)
Megaquake by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $18 $11 −$7 (-39%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? No 42¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 12¢ 10¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Another Canada election called by June 30? No 54¢ 99¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 16 $196 +$20 +10%
Will Andoni Iraola be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $595 +$5 +1%
Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $661 +$7 +1%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $564 +$6 +1%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $67 −$61 -91%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $495 +$237 +48%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 02 $136 +$15 +11%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 01 $2,011 +$419 +21%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 01 $115 +$17 +15%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $186 +$16 +9%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le May 31 $162 −$26 -16%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 31 $1,900 −$398 -21%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co May 31 $4,958 +$359 +7%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 31 $75 −$57 -76%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 29 $54 +$59 +110%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 25 $432 −$50 -12%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 25 $3,118 −$317 -10%
Will Liverpool qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champi May 25 $3,194 +$1,093 +34%
Will West Ham United place 17th for the 2025-26 English Premier League May 25 $16 +$10 +64%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 23 $680 +$198 +29%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026? May 23 $167 −$162 -97%
Will Derek Dooley finish first in the first round of the 2026 Georgia May 21 $46 +$19 +42%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $108 +$20 +19%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $9 +$50 +530%
Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 18 $98 −$35 -36%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma May 18 $1,379 −$600 -44%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 18 $14 +$29 +207%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 18 $1,982 +$244 +12%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l May 17 $232 +$15 +6%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will Aston Villa qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Cham May 15 $291 +$35 +12%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $0 +$1 +317%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,070 +$530 +50%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $719 +$261 +36%
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,537 +$488 +32%
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,928 +$487 +25%
Will Trump Leave China on May 18? May 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Will Trump Leave China after May 18? May 15 $66 +$6 +9%
Will Trump say "Forbidden City" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $34 +$7 +21%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $13 +$51 +400%
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $41 +$25 +60%
Will Trump say "Sovereign" or "Sovereignty" during Chinese State Banqu May 15 $45 +$22 +49%
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $184 +$86 +47%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $686 +$229 +33%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 15 $122 +$30 +25%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $1,026 +$372 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $6 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $132 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $349 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $128 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $19 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $29 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $3 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $2 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $13 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $1,466 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $4 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $1 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1,260 16h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 56¢ $89 19h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL No 56¢ $62 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 60¢ $1,800 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $154 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $572 24h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 97¢ $44 33h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 89¢ $40 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,906.43 · official $24,901.64 (match) · 3500 history records