Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5205…94a9 politics 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$934 (+1%) realized +$934 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,188per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$123
politics 38% −$67
sports 18% +$215
world 3% +$645
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 127 +3.4% -6.4% 21% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 13% -9.0%
10% -15.4% 13% -17.7%
15% -23.5% 13% -25.6%
20% -31.0% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,767) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$10 · ×7.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$640
Realized+$934
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,188
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $640 $640 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,767 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,046 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,971 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $3,242 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,061 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $1,649 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 03 $392 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 03 $473 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,163 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $380 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $465 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,913 −$3 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,201 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,399 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,572 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $2,525 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,183 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $807 +$2 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7,921 −$8 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,325 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $4,297 −$4 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,340 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,189 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $687 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $5,617 −$5 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $4,236 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $640 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $638 4h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $639 6h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $949 21h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $951 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $636 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $637 29h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $450 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $451 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $519 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $520 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $561 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $562 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $848 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $849 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $877 12d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $878 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,367 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,369 13d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $918 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $919 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,356 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,357 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,372 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,277 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,279 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 15d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,275 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.95 · official $639.95 (match) · 435 history records