Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5201…34c3
weather · 608 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$975 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$993 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,134
Realized−$993
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses547 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)584 / 608
History coverage24d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day136.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 24 History 584 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$47
14 days−$1,225
30 days−$993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $413 $424 +$12 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $326 $330 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $307 $309 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $217 $217 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $216 $216 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $190 $190 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $189 $188 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $184 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 97¢ $142 $140 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $122 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $77 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 13 $376 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $375 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $277 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 102°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $229 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $207 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $434 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $314 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 12 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $307 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $340 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $411 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $136 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $247 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $219 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $239 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $236 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $254 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $263 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 12? Jun 11 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $57 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 10? Jun 11 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $254 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$979
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $137 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $28 16m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $15 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $30 18m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $190 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $52 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $50 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 54m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $77 59m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $87 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $181 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $63 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -2.6% -11.9% 91% 3% -9.8%
≤30d 584 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 2% -11.0%
≤90d 584 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 2% -11.0%
all 584 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover136.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 2% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -19.5%
15% -26.3% 1% -27.3%
20% -33.5% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,133.57 · official $3,132.64 (match) · 3500 history records