Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51ff…9de6 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 371d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$8
other 29% $0
politics 9% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +3.2% -6.6% 42% 8% -7.3%
≤90d 14 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 7% -7.7%
all 45 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -8.6%
10% -17.1% 4% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.04 per $1 lost it wins $4.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

371d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage371d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $7 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $22 +$9 +40%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $40 −$2 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 01 $10 $0 -4%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Israel strike on Iran on June 20? Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $7 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $32 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $5 47h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $39 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $34 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $12 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $10 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $4 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.01 · official $48.55 (match) · 148 history records