Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51ff…cf90 weather 980 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,463 (-2%) realized −$1,476 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate81%792W / 180L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$123
14 days+$97
30 days−$1,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$190
crypto 21% −$1,971
other 1% +$6
sports 1% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 +0.6% -8.9% 84% 25% -8.5%
≤30d 521 -2.4% -11.7% 82% 25% -14.4%
≤90d 972 -2.8% -12.0% 81% 24% -12.2%
all 972 -2.8% -12.0% 81% 24% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 24% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 15% -20.6%
15% -28.1% 11% -28.3%
20% -35.2% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$29 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$895
Realized−$1,476
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses792 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)972 / 980
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 972 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $397 $400 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $210 $213 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $170 $171 +$2 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+37%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $150 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $340 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $265 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $83 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$13 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $274 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $210 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $186 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $129 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $21 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.59 · official $892.57 (match) · 3500 history records