Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 302 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$366
14 days+$664
30 days+$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ $547 $10,575 +$10,028 (+1834%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 56¢ 73¢ $3,218 $4,165 +$947 (+29%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $1,561 $2,799 +$1,238 (+79%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,565 $2,669 +$1,104 (+71%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $1,705 $2,454 +$749 (+44%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ $1,106 $1,817 +$711 (+64%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $1,418 $1,743 +$324 (+23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,268 $1,687 +$420 (+33%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 80¢ $161 $1,610 +$1,449 (+901%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $919 $1,430 +$511 (+56%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,350 $1,410 +$60 (+4%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,291 $1,315 +$24 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,527 $1,295 −$232 (-15%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? Yes 30¢ 84¢ $464 $1,273 +$809 (+174%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 33¢ 100¢ $418 $1,250 +$831 (+199%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 40¢ $694 $1,205 +$510 (+73%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1,199 $1,203 +$4 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,243 $1,154 −$89 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,280 $1,131 −$150 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,252 $1,107 −$145 (-12%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes $372 $1,089 +$717 (+193%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $853 $1,083 +$230 (+27%)
Will the Toronto Tempo make the 2026 WNBA Playoffs? No 48¢ 64¢ $784 $1,046 +$262 (+33%)
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $317 $1,013 +$696 (+219%)
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 100¢ $94 $1,000 +$906 (+967%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $317 +$1,037 +327%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $94 +$1,711 +1826%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? Jun 12 $309 +$191 +62%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 12 $32 +$368 +1150%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 12 $103 +$879 +856%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 12 $30 +$270 +900%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Jun 12 $172 +$100 +58%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $72 +$177 +245%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$307 +1109%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $86 +$382 +444%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $26 +$174 +669%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $179 +$14 +8%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $70 +$80 +113%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $58 +$92 +156%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $65 +$35 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 +$361 +1031%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 12 $79 +$9 +11%
Will Vegas Golden Knights vs Montreal Canadiens be the 2026 Stanley Cu Jun 12 $29 +$56 +192%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$105 +842%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? Jun 12 $4 +$51 +1272%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$273 +4221%
Will Colorado Avalanche vs Carolina Hurricanes be the 2026 Stanley Cup Jun 12 $11 +$11 +96%
Dilan Yeşilgöz out as VVD leader before Netherlands election? Jun 12 $232 −$247 -106%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in April? Jun 12 $126 −$126 -100%
Padres vs. Cubs Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Georgia vs. Auburn Jun 12 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $323 −$88 -27%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Seattle beat Buffalo in Super Bowl LX? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
Storm vs Sky Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kings Jun 12 $8 +$3 +35%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 12 $1,164 −$1,102 -95%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 12 $31 +$78 +255%
Rutgers vs. Minnesota Jun 12 $16 +$24 +149%
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Marlins vs. Nationals Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Storm vs. Lynx Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Astros vs. Blue Jays Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Lightning vs. Red Wings Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5 Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during events Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Oilers vs. Islanders Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 83% +$17,259
sports 8% +$1,599
world 4% +$1,181
economics 3% −$5,903
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $5 11m
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 14m
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 15m
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $9 53m
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $40 58m
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $106 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $1 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $3 5h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $199 5h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $11 5h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $22 6h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 6h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 +38.5% +25.3% 23% 21% -10.1%
≤30d 186 +38.9% +25.6% 24% 22% -8.6%
≤90d 186 +38.9% +25.6% 24% 22% -8.6%
all 186 +38.9% +25.6% 24% 22% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover357.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.6% 22% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here +13.6% 22% -17.4%
15% +2.6% 21% -25.4%
20% -7.4% 20% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106,035.48 · official $106,036.55 (match) · 3500 history records