Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51fc…6946 crypto 302 markets active 16h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$389 (+9%) realized +$389 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%149W / 153L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$28
14 days−$54
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$619
sports 38% −$88
other 9% −$167
politics 3% −$3
world 2% −$27
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% +$24
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -48.9% -53.8% 35% 30% -47.0%
≤30d 90 -28.7% -35.5% 49% 34% -35.3%
≤90d 302 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 42% -1.9%
all 302 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 42% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 42% -1.9%
10% -25.0% 35% -11.3%
15% -32.3% 29% -19.8%
20% -38.9% 25% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$389
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses149 / 153
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)302 / 302
History coverage72d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 302 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 01 $10 $0 -5%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $12 +$3 +25%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $18 $0 +0%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $42 −$42 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $8 +$9 +104%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $11 +$16 +150%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais May 31 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $41 −$16 -38%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $5 +$1 +23%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $18 +$45 +250%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $4 +$1 +31%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 15¢ $3 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 89¢ $9 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 63¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1014 history records