Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x51fc…128d other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$49,820 (+19%) realized +$47,734 · open +$2,086
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%33W / 19L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$4,684per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$599est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$10,386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$644
7 days+$30,690
14 days+$42,986
30 days+$42,986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$51,809
sports 20% −$6,737
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -14.4% -22.6% 66% 40% +3.5%
≤30d 52 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 46% +5.8%
≤90d 52 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 46% +5.8%
all 52 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 46% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 46% +5.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 35% -4.3%
15% -30.1% 21% -13.6%
20% -36.9% 15% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$5,077) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,175 vs −$1,516 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$10,386
Realized+$47,734
Unrealized+$2,086
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses33 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$599
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4,684
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $5,000 $7,113 +$2,113 (+42%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2,000 $2,050 +$50 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 44¢ $800 $742 −$58 (-7%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 14¢ 14¢ $500 $482 −$18 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $6,689 +$570 +8%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $2,544 −$2,500 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $3,047 −$3,000 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $13,109 +$4,946 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 28 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2,012 +$497 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,004 +$121 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20,025 +$830 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10,123 +$6,826 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,956 −$3,956 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5,079 −$5,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $35,225 +$6,583 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40,175 +$25,184 +63%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $225 −$223 -99%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $5,028 −$5,000 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $3,022 −$3,000 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1,722 −$1,700 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $503 +$146 +29%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,204 +$134 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $607 −$595 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,012 −$1,595 -79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,007 +$275 +27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $603 −$52 -9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6,216 +$524 +8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8,017 +$585 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10,012 +$405 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15,144 +$6,915 +46%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,131 +$375 +12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,042 +$86 +8%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $3,016 +$654 +22%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $808 +$404 +50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,015 +$541 +11%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $504 +$154 +31%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $309 −$300 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15,032 +$2,778 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7,048 +$2,043 +29%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $615 +$3,213 +522%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,000 +$631 +63%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,000 +$715 +72%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $100 −$96 -96%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,000 +$990 +99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $100 −$97 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $200 −$194 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $300 −$290 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,048 21m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $812 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 14¢ $513 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $5,098 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $1,008 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,524 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,020 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 55¢ $1,115 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 53¢ $1,521 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 51¢ $3,044 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $3,047 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 80¢ $2,012 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $10,084 25h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY South Africa 90¢ $1,003 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $3,025 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $3,004 42h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 96¢ $20,025 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $914 44h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $5,079 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $10,123 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $1,007 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $3,041 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $35,225 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $25,000 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15,175 2d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $225 3d
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $5,028 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3,022 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,722 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,386.32 · official $10,098.94 · 115 history records