Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51fc…ed09
crypto · 182 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$534 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$562 · open −$50
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$70
Realized−$562
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses75 / 101
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)176 / 182
History coverage61d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 6 History 176 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$37
14 days−$86
30 days−$675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $35 $23 −$12 (-35%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$13 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$13 +66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$8 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $12 +$16 +134%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $47 −$30 -62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $42 +$7 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $30 +$12 +40%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $35 +$5 +15%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$7 +35%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 $0 -4%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $10 +$13 +126%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $18 +$16 +92%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$1 -5%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$11 +57%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $6 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $40 +$25 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +39%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 27 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $10 +$10 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $30 +$32 +105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) May 25 $15 −$14 -90%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$129
sports 30% −$115
crypto 18% −$186
world 9% −$63
weather 2% −$42
politics 2% −$52
tech 1% −$31
finance 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $43 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 83¢ $34 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 89¢ $28 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $20 10h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 24h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $40 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $12 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $27 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $42 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $40 2d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 2d
Hungary leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? SELL No 70¢ $28 4d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY No 51¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% -3.3%
≤30d 104 -39.3% -45.1% 33% 33% -42.6%
≤90d 176 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 42% -24.4%
all 176 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 42% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 42% -24.4%
10% -35.6% 40% -31.6%
15% -41.8% 36% -38.2%
20% -47.5% 28% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.67 · official $69.67 (match) · 476 history records