Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x51fb…9b84 crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$219 (-5%) realized −$212 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%69W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$422
7 days+$226
14 days+$204
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$75
sports 40% +$299
crypto 12% −$64
world 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +10.7% +0.1% 52% 27% -3.4%
≤30d 75 +10.8% +0.2% 52% 31% -4.2%
≤90d 137 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 34% -5.4%
all 148 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 32% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 32% -5.9%
10% -18.9% 26% -14.9%
15% -26.7% 18% -23.1%
20% -33.9% 14% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized−$212
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses69 / 79
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions12
Markets (closed)148 / 160
History coverage123d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jordan 85¢ 84¢ $94 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Korea Republic 93¢ 92¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Korea Republic 78¢ 78¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 65¢ 66¢ $72 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jordan $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Korea Republic $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jordan $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $56 +$196 +349%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $223 +$25 +11%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 18 $150 −$1 -1%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $34 +$54 +158%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $122 +$135 +110%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $18 +$5 +25%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $214 +$18 +8%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $42 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $55 −$53 -97%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $80 −$79 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $167 −$165 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $85 −$72 -85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $189 +$57 +30%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $239 +$17 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $46 +$179 +387%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $106 +$128 +121%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $164 +$4 +2%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 $0 -1%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $129 +$18 +14%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $14 −$9 -59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$53 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 −$24 -65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $37 −$26 -70%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $14 −$9 -64%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$17 -48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 −$15 -24%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $75 −$6 -9%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $82 −$3 -4%
Spread: Iraq (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$50 -92%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$62 -89%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $32 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +4%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +1%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $65 +$30 +46%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $57 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 95¢ $87 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $92 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 25¢ $23 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $91 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 94¢ $85 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $57 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $8 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 24¢ $21 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 28¢ $17 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $9 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $37 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 93¢ $57 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 90¢ $84 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland $2 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 11¢ $11 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $38 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $92 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $8 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 13¢ $12 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $83 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.34 · official $478.34 (match) · 515 history records