Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51f9…c78f other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$152
14 days−$150
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$130
sports 19% +$62
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -33.6% -39.9% 21% 21% -53.0%
≤30d 15 -27.7% -34.6% 27% 27% -51.5%
≤90d 23 -10.9% -19.4% 39% 39% -9.8%
all 60 -16.9% -24.8% 38% 37% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 37% -15.2%
10% -32.0% 37% -23.4%
15% -38.6% 32% -30.8%
20% -44.6% 27% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage118d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $121 −$48 -39%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 +$5 +81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$9 -31%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $158 −$45 -28%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $61 +$43 +71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $30 +$49 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 14 $140 +$67 +48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $50 +$42 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Ghana win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Cyprus vs. Moldova end in a draw? Mar 30 $3 −$1 -48%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $18 +$14 +76%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 26 $5 −$2 -40%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-21? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 26 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-03-14? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-03-08? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-05? Mar 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-07? Mar 26 $82 −$75 -92%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $10 +$11 +106%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $3 −$2 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 48m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 54¢ $43 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $121 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 46h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 47h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 10¢ $21 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $33 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 BUY 35¢ $10 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 2026- BUY 31¢ $10 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 43d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 54d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records