Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:06:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51f6…9f18
weather · 761 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$618 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$703 · open +$85
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,398
Realized−$703
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses602 / 150
Open positions9
Markets (closed)752 / 761
History coverage66d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 752 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days+$126
14 days+$146
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $936 $1,018 +$82 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 91¢ 83¢ $213 $194 −$18 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 69¢ 76¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 89¢ 100¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? No 82¢ 100¢ $25 $31 +$5 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 89¢ 92¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 26? No 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 4? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? No 39¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on May 27? No 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16? No 84¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28? No 80¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 5? No 74¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? No 89¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 7? No 95¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 23? No 89¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 −$15 -30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 −$16 -32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $50 +$12 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$8 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $50 +$19 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $96 +$23 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $49 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$21 +42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $51 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 09 $99 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 09 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $50 +$21 +42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 08 $100 −$16 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 6? Jun 07 $44 +$15 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 06 $49 −$49 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 4? Jun 05 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 05 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31? Jun 01 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 30? May 31 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 31 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 31 $48 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $49 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 30? May 31 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 29? May 30 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 29? May 30 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 30 $100 −$58 -58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 29 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 29 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 28? May 29 $51 +$14 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 28? May 29 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 29? May 28 $50 −$17 -33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 28 $50 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 28 $51 +$17 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 28 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 26? May 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 26? May 27 $51 +$24 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 77% −$156
world 23% −$467
politics 0% +$4
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $136 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 69¢ $47 15h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 69¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June BUY No 90¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 64¢ $35 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $131 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $50 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 63¢ $34 36h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $50 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 52¢ $15 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $759 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +8.9% -1.5% 72% 52% +0.2%
≤30d 108 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 56% -6.6%
≤90d 752 -1.0% -10.4% 80% 34% -11.7%
all 752 -1.0% -10.4% 80% 34% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 34% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 12% -20.2%
15% -26.8% 5% -27.9%
20% -34.0% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,398.26 · official $1,398.26 (match) · 2326 history records