Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
51 0x51f4…3e21 sports 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$813 (+9%) realized +$554 · open +$259
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%112W / 152L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$684
7 days+$1,504
14 days+$1,485
30 days+$1,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,008
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +28.4% +16.2% 38% 38% +27.0%
≤30d 144 +25.1% +13.2% 38% 38% +26.5%
≤90d 264 +6.5% -3.7% 42% 37% -1.2%
all 264 +6.5% -3.7% 42% 37% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 37% -1.2%
10% -12.9% 35% -10.6%
15% -21.3% 33% -19.3%
20% -29.0% 31% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$24 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,335
Realized+$554
Unrealized+$259
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses112 / 152
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions29
Markets (closed)264 / 293
History coverage57d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 19¢ 46¢ $90 $223 +$133 (+149%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 70¢ $104 $144 +$40 (+38%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Under 30¢ 29¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 33¢ 44¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ 58¢ $31 $67 +$36 (+117%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 66¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 39¢ 55¢ $44 $61 +$17 (+40%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Under 22¢ 30¢ $45 $59 +$14 (+32%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ 34¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+5%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 78¢ 88¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Over 32¢ 48¢ $35 $51 +$17 (+49%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ 44¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 45¢ 82¢ $26 $48 +$22 (+84%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) New York Yankees 35¢ 72¢ $20 $41 +$21 (+106%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) New York Yankees 26¢ 61¢ $15 $35 +$20 (+135%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 25¢ 26¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 58¢ 80¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Over 40¢ 58¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 21¢ 6¢ $70 $22 −$48 (-69%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Toronto Blue Jays 24¢ 30¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 26¢ 26¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Boston Red Sox 28¢ 10¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-64%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 70¢ 84¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Over 24¢ 38¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 40¢ 11¢ $55 $15 −$40 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $11 +$8 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 +$9 +180%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $12 +$30 +252%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $171 +$154 +90%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 17 $6 +$19 +344%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$80 +158%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$28 +276%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 +$19 +291%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 17 $44 +$208 +474%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 +$57 +206%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 17 $63 +$237 +373%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) Jun 17 $4 +$21 +510%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$115 +226%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 17 $82 +$298 +365%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $25 +$35 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 21¢ $10 56m
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $19 57m
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 18¢ $25 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 38¢ $29 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 31¢ $10 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 24¢ $16 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 22¢ $15 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 70¢ $15 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 22¢ $15 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) BUY New York Yankees 35¢ $20 7h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ $15 8h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 15¢ $4 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $15 8h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 19¢ $15 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 8h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $15 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $15 8h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 23¢ $15 8h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 28¢ $51 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 23¢ $20 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 17¢ $20 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $10 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $10 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 23¢ $5 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 17¢ $4 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,335.19 · official $1,335.21 (match) · 805 history records