Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51f4…1408 crypto 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-2%) realized −$75 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%71W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$118
14 days−$233
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$218
sports 22% +$6
crypto 13% −$103
world 10% +$14
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -17.5% -25.4% 43% 40% -19.7%
≤30d 167 -10.3% -18.8% 43% 33% -14.6%
≤90d 167 -10.3% -18.8% 43% 33% -14.6%
all 167 -10.3% -18.8% 43% 33% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 33% -14.6%
10% -26.6% 26% -22.7%
15% -33.7% 21% -30.2%
20% -40.2% 17% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses71 / 96
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage24d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 68¢ 60¢ $47 $41 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $140 −$41 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $35 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$30 -73%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$6 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $35 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $20 +$15 +73%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $61 +$31 +51%
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Keshav Chopra Jun 10 $20 +$6 +31%
ITF Kayseri: Muzammil Murtaza vs Rafael De Alba Jun 10 $15 +$5 +32%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $42 +$32 +75%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $49 +$17 +35%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $20 −$7 -34%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $34 +$19 +57%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $10 +$5 +47%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$6 +29%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $20 −$9 -43%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $20 −$1 -3%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $4 −$1 -24%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $37 +$18 +50%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 08 $29 +$5 +18%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 08 $12 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $40 +$21 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $286 −$89 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $580 −$59 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $219 −$81 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $259 +$113 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $47 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $47 4m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $56 40m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $21 42m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $34 45m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 72¢ $25 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $21 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 28¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $36 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 22¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 56¢ $20 4h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $20 4h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 35h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 53¢ $50 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $32 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $31 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.89 · official $40.89 (match) · 541 history records