Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51f3…2e03 other 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$159 (-20%) realized −$155 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%29W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$165
sports 23% +$4
crypto 9% −$57
world 9% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -7.4% -16.2% 23% 23% -47.7%
≤30d 125 -7.4% -16.2% 23% 23% -47.7%
≤90d 125 -7.4% -16.2% 23% 23% -47.7%
all 125 -7.4% -16.2% 23% 23% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 23% -47.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 22% -52.7%
15% -31.6% 22% -57.2%
20% -38.3% 20% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses29 / 96
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)125 / 137
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway to win the second half? Jun 23 $89 −$88 -99%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Norway (-5.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $8 +$39 +510%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $13 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $4 +$14 +325%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +48%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 +$2 +124%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2 +$11 +550%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$16 +344%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2 +$7 +365%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$17 +365%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$2 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 14m
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 14m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25m
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 77¢ $67 1h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 9¢ $1 1h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Spread: Norway (-5.5) BUY Norway 8¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.91 · official $65.93 (match) · 224 history records