Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x51f3…58e1 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$366 (+4%) realized +$352 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate65%36W / 19L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$67
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$74
sports 39% +$217
tech 6% +$41
politics 4% +$12
world 2% +$3
economics 1% +$2
culture 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +54.1% +39.4% 100% 100% +37.2%
≤90d 3 +54.1% +39.4% 100% 100% +37.2%
all 55 -5.3% -14.3% 65% 25% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 25% -5.8%
10% -22.5% 15% -14.8%
15% -30.0% 13% -23.0%
20% -36.9% 11% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$1,361
Realized+$352
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses36 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage173d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$67 +66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$79 +78%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 01 $125 +$24 +19%
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils Feb 21 $150 +$3 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Feb 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February Feb 15 $150 +$33 +22%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Feb 15 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 15 $250 +$17 +7%
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $700 +$9 +1%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Y Feb 06 $155 +$6 +4%
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Feb 06 $280 +$32 +11%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Feb 06 $325 +$16 +5%
Will Carson Schwesinger be the 2025-2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Y Feb 06 $382 +$21 +6%
Will "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS - Bad Bunny" win Best Música Urbana Album a Feb 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Feb 02 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Feb 02 $10 +$2 +25%
Will "luther - Kendrick Lamar With SZA" win Best Melodic Rap Performan Feb 02 $10 +$1 +5%
Wild vs. Oilers Feb 01 $690 +$28 +4%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Feb 01 $30 $0 -0%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Feb 01 $602 +$38 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Feb 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 29 $353 +$12 +4%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Jan 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 33.5 Jan 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Jets vs. Devils Jan 28 $120 +$18 +15%
Sharks vs. Canucks Jan 28 $196 +$33 +17%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 28 $3 +$8 +270%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Utah vs. Panthers Jan 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jan 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Nets vs. Suns Jan 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Pelicans vs. Thunder Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Knicks Jan 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $420 +$37 +9%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $172 +$21 +12%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $153 +$8 +5%
Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28? Jan 12 $100 −$3 -3%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 12 $200 +$15 +8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 11 $75 +$3 +3%
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 10 $100 +$247 +247%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 06 $439 +$16 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 04 $150 +$3 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jan 04 $336 +$6 +2%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jan 01 $20 +$63 +317%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 01 $250 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $97 1h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $300 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $200 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 79¢ $24 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 18d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 53¢ $74 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 36¢ $49 20d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $102 20d
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Duke Blue Devils 98¢ $150 125d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL Yes 82¢ $98 127d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL Yes 97¢ $267 127d
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 97¢ $300 130d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 130d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 130d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February BUY Yes 82¢ $150 131d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $150 131d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 90¢ $150 131d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 131d
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? BUY Yes 99¢ $700 135d
Will Christian McCaffrey be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Y BUY Yes 94¢ $49 140d
Will "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS - Bad Bunny" win Best Música Urbana Album a SELL Yes 100¢ $12 140d
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY SELL Yes 100¢ $14 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,361.41 · official $1,361.66 (match) · 119 history records