Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51f3…cb65
other · 94 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$85 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 92
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage108d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Raptors 34¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mavericks 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Celtics Wizards 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Kings Kings 35¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Magic vs. Heat Heat 63¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Pelicans Wizards 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Cavaliers 44¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Raptors Pelicans 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $110 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $59 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 47% −$2
other 33% −$1
sports 13% −$83
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $10 4m
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 11h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 24d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 25d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 25d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $48 25d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $48 25d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 26d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 26d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $53 26d
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $53 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 27d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 94 -7.8% -16.6% 2% 2% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 2% -12.5%
10% -24.6% 2% -20.9%
15% -31.8% 1% -28.5%
20% -38.5% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records