Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
51 0x51f2…fa8f crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$437 (+2%) realized +$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%22W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$438
7 days+$754
14 days−$1,961
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$882
other 24% −$707
sports 16% −$591
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +35.9% +23.0% 50% 50% +32.6%
≤30d 56 +10.3% -0.2% 32% 32% -10.8%
≤90d 56 +10.3% -0.2% 32% 32% -10.8%
all 66 +11.4% +0.8% 33% 33% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 33% -12.2%
10% -8.9% 33% -20.6%
15% -17.7% 33% -28.3%
20% -25.8% 33% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$207 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 44
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage161d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$74 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $410 +$317 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $157 +$421 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$20 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $397 +$300 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $371 −$287 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $319 −$303 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $158 −$151 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $395 +$534 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $477 −$452 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $576 −$576 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $1,057 −$1,057 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $237 −$200 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $262 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $528 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $76 −$71 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $607 −$607 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $341 −$321 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $181 −$171 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $131 +$172 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $313 +$2,270 +725%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $297 −$282 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $394 −$390 -99%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $255 +$959 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $149 +$396 +265%
Valorant: BOOM Esports vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P Jun 05 $176 +$100 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $203 −$192 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $106 +$372 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $53 +$125 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $211 +$746 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $157 +$352 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $262 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $1,016 −$381 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 05 $314 +$781 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 26¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 19¢ $3,030 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $340 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $70 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $44 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $578 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY 6¢ $757 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $184 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $84 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $329 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $397 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $192.11 · 213 history records