Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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51 0x51f0…5c1c crypto 1521 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,294 (-3%) realized −$382 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%1333W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$18
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$175
world 3% +$33
sports 2% −$37
other 1% −$192
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +1.3% -8.4% 89% 2% -8.7%
≤30d 194 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 194 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 2% -8.8%
all 1519 -0.8% -10.2% 88% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$382
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1333 / 186
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1519 / 1521
History coverage171d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 0¢ 57¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 3? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Pistons 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - December 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - December 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$8 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$11 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.50 · official $11.30 (match) · 3500 history records