Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51f0…186c sports 665 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,339 (-21%) realized −$1,263 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%257W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$302
14 days−$233
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$1,788
sports 27% −$587
other 19% −$157
politics 1% −$20
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -26.6% -33.6% 36% 36% -37.3%
≤30d 115 -15.8% -23.8% 42% 40% -26.0%
≤90d 521 +3.0% -6.8% 45% 45% -28.5%
all 658 -8.0% -16.8% 39% 39% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 39% -32.0%
10% -24.7% 32% -38.5%
15% -32.0% 28% -44.4%
20% -38.7% 27% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$772
Realized−$1,263
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses257 / 401
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)658 / 665
History coverage107d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 658 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 58¢ 99¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 44¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $33 +$42 +126%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $41 +$39 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $31 +$37 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $47 +$57 +122%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$8 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 +$27 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $69 −$68 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $70 +$50 +71%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $133 −$133 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$39 +126%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $31 +$31 +101%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$9 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $21 +$23 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Surplus" during Wisconsin events? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Trump say "Swing State" during Wisconsin events? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$4 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$19 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 1h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 1h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 47h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 47h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $771.67 · official $771.70 (match) · 2402 history records