Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x51ef…9257 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,789 (+21%) realized +$4,791 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%32W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$4,691
other 13% +$96
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.6%
≤30d 1 +62.0% +46.6% 100% 100% +46.6%
≤90d 14 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 57% -9.4%
all 44 +1.7% -7.9% 73% 64% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 64% +10.6%
10% -16.8% 50% -0.0%
15% -24.8% 32% -9.7%
20% -32.2% 11% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$76 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.23 per $1 lost it wins $6.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized+$4,791
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses32 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)44 / 56
History coverage186d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $101 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $1,019 +$8 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 23 $100 +$28 +28%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $100 +$49 +49%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $200 +$42 +21%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $1,080 +$60 +6%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 22 $100 +$25 +25%
76ers vs. Jazz Mar 22 $100 +$43 +43%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $100 +$56 +56%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 22 $100 +$34 +34%
Heat vs. Rockets Mar 22 $100 −$71 -71%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $100 −$95 -95%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $100 +$39 +39%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $100 +$49 +49%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $100 +$69 +70%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $100 −$100 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 20 $100 +$75 +75%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 20 $100 +$15 +15%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 20 $100 +$25 +25%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 20 $200 +$54 +27%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $100 +$89 +89%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 20 $200 +$10 +5%
Bucks vs. Jazz Mar 20 $100 −$63 -63%
Thunder vs. Nets Mar 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Mar 19 $100 +$14 +14%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $100 +$15 +15%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Mar 19 $100 +$20 +20%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Mar 19 $100 +$37 +37%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 19 $100 +$47 +47%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $70 −$70 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Feb 13 $514 +$179 +35%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 13 $71 +$29 +41%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $74 +$26 +35%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $69 +$31 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 17 $1 $0 -1%
LoL: FRK vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 16 $6,125 +$1,152 +19%
LoL: ZSM vs Oh My God (BO3) Dec 16 $6,013 +$2,343 +39%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 16 $3,072 +$1,002 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $70 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 11h
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 87d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 87d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 87d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 87d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 87d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $36 87d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 88d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 88d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 88d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 88d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $653 89d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 89d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 89d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $71 89d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 89d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 89d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $728.66 · official $727.90 (match) · 590 history records