Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51ee…2912
weather · 881 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$489 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$113
Realized−$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses772 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)875 / 881
History coverage49d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day67.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 875 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$70
14 days−$73
30 days−$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $41 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? Jun 10 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $98 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $84 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 8? Jun 09 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$521
other 1% +$30
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $14 45m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $29 48m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $44 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $9 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $30 31h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 32h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $28 32h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $29 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $40 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $28 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $17 40h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $45 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $12 40h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $25 40h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $37 40h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $39 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $39 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 43h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 46h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 81¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -2.9% -12.2% 84% 1% -11.8%
≤30d 398 -3.2% -12.4% 87% 2% -12.2%
≤90d 875 +0.4% -9.1% 88% 3% -10.0%
all 875 +0.4% -9.1% 88% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 3% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 1% -18.6%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.02 · official $113.02 (match) · 3500 history records