Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:00:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51ec…dcdf crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-29%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$13
crypto 43% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -43.1% -48.6% 43% 14% -22.1%
≤30d 7 -43.1% -48.6% 43% 14% -22.1%
≤90d 8 -50.2% -55.0% 38% 12% -36.5%
all 8 -50.2% -55.0% 38% 12% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.0% 12% -36.5%
10% -59.3% 12% -42.6%
15% -63.2% 12% -48.1%
20% -66.8% 0% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage90d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $37 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 25? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? Jun 22 $16 −$8 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 25? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 24? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records