Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x51ec…05fd other 344 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,642 (+6%) realized +$1,955 · open −$313
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%178W / 98L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$3,636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$43
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$979
finance 8% +$130
world 6% +$232
politics 4% +$5
crypto 2% −$1
sports 1% −$8
tech 1% −$9
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +210.8% +181.2% 50% 50% +15.2%
≤90d 47 +27.7% +15.5% 70% 55% +2.6%
all 276 +0.5% -9.1% 64% 46% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 46% -2.4%
10% -17.8% 27% -11.7%
15% -25.7% 18% -20.2%
20% -33.0% 14% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$3,636
Realized+$1,955
Unrealized−$313
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses178 / 98
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions68
Markets (closed)276 / 344
History coverage322d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 67¢ 66¢ $235 $229 −$6 (-2%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 68¢ $241 $223 −$19 (-8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 82¢ 76¢ $214 $199 −$15 (-7%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 69¢ 60¢ $217 $188 −$29 (-13%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 53¢ 52¢ $160 $157 −$2 (-1%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 71¢ 78¢ $137 $150 +$13 (+9%)
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $149 $143 −$6 (-4%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 64¢ 32¢ $258 $127 −$132 (-51%)
Dreamcash FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 42¢ 55¢ $97 $126 +$29 (+30%)
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 83¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 93¢ 91¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-3%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 78¢ 73¢ $93 $87 −$6 (-7%)
Relay FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 62¢ 81¢ $64 $84 +$20 (+31%)
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 82¢ $65 $82 +$18 (+27%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 65¢ 42¢ $123 $80 −$44 (-35%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 58¢ 79¢ $58 $79 +$21 (+36%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 36¢ 52¢ $50 $73 +$22 (+44%)
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 79¢ 82¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+3%)
Will QFEX launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $61 $67 +$6 (+10%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 68¢ $33 $66 +$34 (+103%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $82 $63 −$19 (-23%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 66¢ $78 $60 −$18 (-23%)
Relay FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 80¢ 90¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+13%)
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 42¢ 52¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+26%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 51¢ 24¢ $105 $48 −$57 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$110 +1024%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $68 −$67 -98%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 10 $208 +$40 +19%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 25 $21 +$6 +30%
Dreamcash FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 23 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $63 −$21 -32%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 20 $16 +$12 +75%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? May 15 $7 +$9 +126%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 11 $210 +$16 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $227 +$131 +58%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by May 31? May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 110 by April 30? May 01 $37 +$6 +15%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $6 +$3 +54%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $5 +$5 +91%
Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 30 $39 +$23 +58%
Printr FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 30 $37 +$27 +74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 28 $192 +$6 +3%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m? Apr 28 $1 +$4 +270%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 27 $61 +$36 +58%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 25 $38 −$37 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 21 $93 $0 -0%
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 21 $26 +$2 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 20 $89 +$9 +11%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m? Apr 15 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 15 $57 +$10 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $390 +$7 +2%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $56 −$33 -59%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 10 $67 −$9 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by April 30? Apr 09 $6 −$3 -51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 08 $45 +$9 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 08 $242 +$14 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 08 $272 +$21 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 07 $128 +$22 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 07 $100 +$21 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $19 −$19 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 07 $10 +$7 +65%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $15 +$16 +106%
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 07 $7 −$7 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 07 $33 +$8 +24%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $28 +$11 +39%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $14 +$6 +47%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 27 $290 −$2 -1%
Perle Labs FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 26 $22 +$22 +102%
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? Mar 26 $26 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $32 1h
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $49 1h
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 53¢ $51 1h
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 53¢ $103 1h
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 4d
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $84 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $4 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $7 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $2 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $10 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $9 12d
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 73¢ $9 13d
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 72¢ $140 17d
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $55 17d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $36 17d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 17d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 17d
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 23d
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 73¢ $27 23d
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by November 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 24d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $13 26d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $1 28d
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 38¢ $16 28d
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 38¢ $16 28d
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 38¢ $16 28d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 28d
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,635.80 · official $3,619.74 (match) · 2042 history records