Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51eb…5b3b crypto 13 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-8%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -21.5%
≤30d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -21.5%
≤90d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -21.5%
all 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 46% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 38% -29.0%
15% -32.4% 23% -35.8%
20% -39.1% 8% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records