Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51ea…150f other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,841 (-13%) realized −$17,183 · open −$4,658
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,882per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$1,532est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$10,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$10,980
other 34% −$15,093
world 2% −$2,689
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +73.9% +57.3% 33% 31% -23.9%
≤30d 39 +73.9% +57.3% 33% 31% -23.9%
≤90d 39 +73.9% +57.3% 33% 31% -23.9%
all 39 +73.9% +57.3% 33% 31% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.3% 31% -23.9%
10% +42.3% 26% -31.2%
15% ← realistic here +28.5% 26% -37.8%
20% +15.9% 23% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$5,973) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +123% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,682 vs −$2,268 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10,424
Realized−$17,183
Unrealized−$4,658
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$1,532
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3,882
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $7,829 $7,633 −$196 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $7,223 $2,762 −$4,461 (-62%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$15 -51%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10,258 −$10,258 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $296 +$183 +62%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8,049 −$648 -8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4,888 +$241 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10,249 −$10,249 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,240 −$10,240 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,689 −$2,689 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,484 −$2,917 -84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,236 −$2,330 -72%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$15 +49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$227 +1469%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $3,972 −$3,972 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,310 −$467 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,341 −$1,341 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $27,044 +$5,407 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,861 −$2,717 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $9,721 −$5,305 -55%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $22,149 +$2,738 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3,255 −$3,206 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $400 −$294 -74%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $190 −$151 -79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,755 +$8,245 +470%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6,571 +$3,576 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$283 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $514 +$9,486 +1845%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,605 −$1,212 -76%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,361 +$4,139 +123%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,973 −$345 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $479 50m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $7,402 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $7,401 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8,017 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,718 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 61¢ $296 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,658 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,658 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $14 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 11h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 11h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $473 12h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $97 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $33 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $60 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $3,170 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $29 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $96 13h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $146 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,423.79 · official $10,423.79 (match) · 257 history records