Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51de…9be1 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-9%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$13
other 10% +$1
sports 7% −$1
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 46% -21.1%
≤30d 46 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 46% -21.1%
≤90d 46 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 46% -21.1%
all 46 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 46% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 46% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 33% -28.7%
15% -34.2% 20% -35.6%
20% -40.6% 20% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 3¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 9¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $2.00 · 117 history records