Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51dd…4053
weather · 72 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$223 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$223 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 68
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage11d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$182
14 days−$223
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? No 68¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $22 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $57 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $60 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 −$7 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $66 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $28 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 −$5 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $71 −$27 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $67 −$8 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $54 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $93 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $55 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $105 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $69 −$14 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $71 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $68 −$4 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $70 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $86 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 09 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% −$220
world 6% −$2
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 68¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 71¢ $6 44m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 66¢ $8 56m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $8 56m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 68¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 68¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? SELL No 66¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 69¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 68¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -6.5% -15.4% 2% 0% -17.5%
≤30d 69 -7.8% -16.5% 1% 0% -17.6%
≤90d 69 -7.8% -16.5% 1% 0% -17.6%
all 69 -7.8% -16.5% 1% 0% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 0% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 0% -25.5%
15% -31.8% 0% -32.7%
20% -38.5% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.11 · official $3.11 (match) · 592 history records