Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51dc…423b crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,361 (+15%) realized +$902 · open +$2,459
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$23,721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$123
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% +$2,460
crypto 2% −$254
sports 0% −$32
other 0% +$6
tech 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -72.7% -75.3% 5% 5% -48.2%
≤30d 38 -57.1% -61.2% 11% 11% -70.0%
≤90d 38 -57.1% -61.2% 11% 11% -70.0%
all 38 -57.1% -61.2% 11% 11% -70.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.2% 11% -70.0%
10% -64.9% 11% -72.9%
15% -68.3% 11% -75.5%
20% -71.4% 11% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$23,721
Realized+$902
Unrealized+$2,459
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage28d
Avg bet$535
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 86¢ $19,071 $21,469 +$2,398 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 51¢ 50¢ $1,531 $1,515 −$16 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $560 $620 +$60 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $96 $114 +$18 (+19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$24 +474%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$30 +313%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $58 −$55 -95%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$22 +213%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $216 −$108 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$17 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY Yes 32¢ $96 50m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $560 59m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $212 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $23 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 57¢ $358 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 58¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 58¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 58¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 58¢ $123 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
France vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $9 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,720.75 · official $23,698.43 (match) · 149 history records