Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51db…42c2 crypto 780 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$545 (+2%) realized +$581 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%742W / 37L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$279
14 days+$286
30 days+$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 1% -6.4%
≤30d 734 +0.3% -9.2% 95% 2% -8.4%
≤90d 779 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 2% -8.3%
all 779 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 2% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$38 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$581
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses742 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)779 / 780
History coverage36d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 90¢ 68¢ $140 $105 −$36 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $133 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $136 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $109 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $108 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $130 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $88 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $130 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $107 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $108 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $85 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $115 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $113 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $109 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $107 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $71 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $67 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $68 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $68 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $67 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $66 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $42 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $36 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.83 · official $129.29 · 2191 history records