Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

51 0x51da…eb48 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day8.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-34.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-27.8%	-34.7%	43%	43%	-12.1%
≤30d	7	-27.8%	-34.7%	43%	43%	-12.1%
≤90d	7	-27.8%	-34.7%	43%	43%	-12.1%
all	7	-27.8%	-34.7%	43%	43%	-12.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.7%	43%	-12.1%
10%	-41.0%	29%	-20.5%
15%	-46.7%	14%	-28.2%
20%	-51.9%	14%	-35.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -28% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.84 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$53

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day8.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	80¢	84¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$30	+$6	+20%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$50	+$15	+31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$50	$0	-0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	80¢	$50	1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$0	4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	83¢	$30	4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$50	26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	100¢	$50	27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	81¢	$10	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.81 · official $52.81 (match) · 13 history records