Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51d9…6129 crypto 1001 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$229 (-1%) realized +$546 · open −$775
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%490W / 507L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day97.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,124
7 days+$1,227
14 days+$1,351
30 days+$1,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$72
other 16% −$475
sports 14% +$1,056
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +10.7% +0.2% 53% 52% +7.0%
≤30d 997 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 45% -1.9%
≤90d 997 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 45% -1.9%
all 997 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 45% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 45% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 42% -11.3%
15% -20.3% 40% -19.9%
20% -28.1% 38% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$546
Unrealized−$775
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses490 / 507
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)997 / 1001
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day97.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 997 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $717 $0 −$717 (-100%)
DR Congo to win the second half? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Portugal to win the second half? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $129 +$121 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? Jun 17 $2 +$18 +897%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $732 +$69 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $69 −$39 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$2 -13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $38 +$664 +1726%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $113 −$113 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $410 +$89 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $506 +$144 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $623 +$77 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $82 +$38 +47%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $440 +$59 +14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $439 +$61 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $374 +$26 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $425 +$74 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $270 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $42 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $49 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 8m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $801 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 15m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $732 21m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 22m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 25m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 27m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 28m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 29m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Second half draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 29m
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $1.87 (match) · 3500 history records