Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51d8…7536 sports 994 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$384 (-9%) realized −$383 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%533W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$37
14 days+$40
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$158
other 13% −$90
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +14.2% +3.3% 63% 60% +5.2%
≤30d 298 +3.9% -6.0% 59% 57% -5.3%
≤90d 976 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 47% -13.6%
all 976 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 47% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 47% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 38% -21.9%
15% -28.1% 30% -29.4%
20% -35.1% 24% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses533 / 443
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions18
Markets (closed)976 / 994
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 976 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 82¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 69¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 23¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 75¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Under 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 224 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$5 +116%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$2 -55%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$3 +307%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $7 −$3 -40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -56%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +35%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$3 +165%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$8 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 20m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $1 26m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $1 27m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 29m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $1 34m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $1 37m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $1 46m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 65¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.78 · official $45.78 (match) · 3500 history records