Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
51 0x51d7…516d sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-1%) realized −$50 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%43W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$139
14 days+$231
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$162
sports 47% −$191
crypto 1% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.4% +5.4% 64% 64% +2.9%
≤30d 59 +2.6% -7.2% 58% 58% -7.4%
≤90d 73 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 53% -10.3%
all 81 -2.2% -11.5% 53% 53% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 53% -11.5%
10% -20.0% 47% -20.0%
15% -27.7% 38% -27.7%
20% -34.8% 28% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses43 / 38
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage198d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $29 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$21 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$49 +159%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $86 +$30 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $51 −$49 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +113%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +43%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $24 +$19 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$9 -44%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $20 +$11 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$15 +29%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 10 $12 +$10 +81%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $15 +$16 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $94 +$19 +20%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $90 +$14 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $81 +$12 +14%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $61 +$20 +32%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $30 +$31 +103%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $61 −$2 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $64 +$24 +38%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $112 +$27 +24%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 06 $61 −$17 -28%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $54 +$14 +26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $43 +$11 +26%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 06 $27 +$16 +61%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $30 −$1 -4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $58 −$9 -16%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 05 $44 +$13 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 May 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $29 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $26 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $33 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $49 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $106 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $20 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $30 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 22¢ $10 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $10 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $86 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $69 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants $2 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $19 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $25 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.52 · official $35.52 (match) · 192 history records