Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x51d4…cc7e other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+12%) realized +$69 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$33
sports 14% +$82
crypto 12% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.1% -16.9% 40% 40% +1.7%
≤30d 10 -8.1% -16.9% 40% 40% +1.7%
≤90d 10 -8.1% -16.9% 40% 40% +1.7%
all 10 -8.1% -16.9% 40% 40% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 40% +1.7%
10% -24.8% 40% -8.1%
15% -32.1% 40% -17.0%
20% -38.7% 20% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$33 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +249%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$29 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$86 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 50m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 50m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 51m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $137 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.14 · official $35.15 (match) · 22 history records