Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51d3…1306 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-5%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%79W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4
sports 3% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 3% -8.7%
≤30d 69 +1.7% -8.0% 99% 3% -8.7%
≤90d 89 -6.1% -15.0% 89% 9% -12.4%
all 89 -6.1% -15.0% 89% 9% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 9% -12.4%
10% -23.2% 2% -20.8%
15% -30.6% 1% -28.4%
20% -37.4% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses79 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage65d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records