Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

51 0x51d1…f8e6 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$4,256 (-62%) realized −$4,282 · open +$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$982per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$98est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$2,547now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	5	-18.4%	-26.2%	80%	0%	-99.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.2%	0%	-99.7%
10%	-33.2%	0%	-99.7%
15%	-39.7%	0%	-99.7%
20%	-45.6%	0%	-99.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$4,256 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage

Net worth$2,547

Realized−$4,282

Unrealized+$26

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$98

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage97d

Avg bet$982

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Under	49¢	50¢	$2,503	$2,529	+$26 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	98¢	100¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	May 30	$4,316	−$4,256	-99%
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31?	Mar 12	$5	$0	+1%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	Mar 12	$4	$0	+2%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Mar 12	$3	$0	+4%
Will Clear Street Group Inc.'s market cap be between $10.5B and $11.0B	Mar 12	$3	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	49¢	$1,319	1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	49¢	$1,222	1h
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5	BUY Under	53¢	$4,316	18d
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31?	BUY Yes	99¢	$5	97d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	98¢	$4	97d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	BUY No	96¢	$3	97d
Will Clear Street Group Inc.'s market cap be between $10.5B and $11.0B	BUY No	99¢	$3	97d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO	BUY No	98¢	$3	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,546.88 · official $2,546.88 (match) · 8 history records