Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51cc…2e33 crypto 304 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$374 (-14%) realized −$377 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%142W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day271.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$529
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 46% -28.0%
≤30d 303 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 46% -28.0%
≤90d 303 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 46% -28.0%
all 303 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 46% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover271.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 46% -28.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 43% -34.9%
15% -36.5% 39% -41.2%
20% -42.7% 32% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$377
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses142 / 161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day271.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 48¢ 81¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$32 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$12 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $23 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $23 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.49 · official $6.51 · 472 history records