Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

51 0x51cb…24dd other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$402 (+8%) realized +$410 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate46%6W / 7L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$279per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$39est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$53

7 days−$53

14 days+$90

30 days+$206

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)-3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+14.3%	+3.4%	50%	50%	-44.6%
≤30d	12	+6.3%	-3.9%	42%	42%	-4.1%
≤90d	13	+7.1%	-3.1%	46%	46%	-1.1%
all	13	+7.1%	-3.1%	46%	46%	-1.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.1%	46%	-1.1%
10%	-12.3%	38%	-10.6%
15%	-20.8%	38%	-19.2%
20%	-28.6%	31%	-27.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 66% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late +19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$219 vs −$123 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage

Net worth$92

Realized+$410

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses6 / 7

Est. fees paid−$39

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 19

History coverage30d

Avg bet$279

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	56¢	52¢	$100	$92	−$8 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$37	+$47	+129%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 29	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$106	+$48	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$204	+$309	+152%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$102	+$109	+107%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$506	−$124	-24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$816	−$125	-15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$107	−$105	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$759	−$209	-28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$508	+$556	+109%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$1,400	+$244	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	43¢	$37	2h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$102	8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	5¢	$51	8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$106	9d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06	BUY	26¢	$51	9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$204	9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	18¢	$51	10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	BUY Over	65¢	$101	11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	47¢	$102	12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	46¢	$383	13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	59¢	$506	13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	48¢	$102	13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$691	14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	34¢	$816	14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	34¢	$104	14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$107	15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	44¢	$550	16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$759	16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$508	17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	59¢	$444	30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	50¢	$444	30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	50¢	$457	30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	50¢	$457	30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	53¢	$499	30d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.96 · official $91.96 (match) · 32 history records