Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x51ca…42c6
weather · 1379 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$44 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,292
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1338 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1339 / 1379
History coverage39d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 40 History 1339 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$37
14 days−$5
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Hijikata vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 85°F or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Blanch (-1.5) vs Rocha (+1.5) Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Izquierdo (+1.5) Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $139 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 66% +$63
sports 27% −$33
tech 3% +$5
culture 2% +$2
other 2% +$4
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A BUY Noir Verse 100¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $70 24m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $17 26m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 28m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 28m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $53 28m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 29m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 100¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Set Handicap: Blanch (-1.5) vs Rocha (+1.5) BUY Rocha 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 85°F or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Clutchain 100¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Clutchain 100¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs Clutchain (+1.5) BUY Clutchain 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $61 3h
Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Izquierdo (+1.5) BUY Izquierdo 100¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $70 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 996 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1339 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
all 1339 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,291.90 · official $2,290.74 (match) · 3500 history records