Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51c8…7ff7 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$100
sports 42% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.7% -11.1% 68% 47% -11.1%
≤30d 19 -1.7% -11.1% 68% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 19 -1.7% -11.1% 68% 47% -11.1%
all 19 -1.7% -11.1% 68% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 47% -11.1%
10% -19.6% 37% -19.6%
15% -27.3% 21% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 92¢ 100¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$9 +19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$9 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$6 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$1 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$6 -24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $129 −$123 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $125 +$4 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $86 +$40 +47%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $63 +$23 +36%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 +$5 +74%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $39 +$11 +28%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $38 +$9 +23%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $56 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $47 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $17 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $16 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $37 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $30 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 54¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $129 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 97¢ $125 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $126 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $86 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $63 4d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $50 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $39 4d
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $38 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.75 · official $59.75 (match) · 40 history records