Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51c2…0b11 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$2
politics 23% +$1
other 13% $0
crypto 9% $0
weather 7% $0
sports 7% −$1
tech 7% $0
culture 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.2% -12.4% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 45% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 45% 0% -9.9%
all 35 +1.5% -8.2% 31% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 6% -8.7%
10% -17.0% 6% -17.4%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage316d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $24 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $79 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $17 −$3 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $23 +$12 +52%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 11 $2 +$1 +24%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? Aug 10 $18 $0 +3%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 08 $7 +$1 +8%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 08 $9 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $0 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $0 $0 -9%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 07 $86 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 06 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $34 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $4 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $4 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $14 8h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $36 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $37 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $13 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $7 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $39 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $39 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 97¢ $32 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.67 · official $34.67 (match) · 149 history records