Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
51 0x51c2…a755 sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL −$23 (-11%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%61W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$11
sports 33% +$2
other 24% −$9
culture 1% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.1% +28.6% 100% 50% +21.0%
≤30d 2 +42.1% +28.6% 100% 50% +21.0%
≤90d 6 -16.3% -24.3% 67% 33% -15.2%
all 106 -4.6% -13.7% 58% 54% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 54% -18.5%
10% -21.9% 49% -26.3%
15% -29.5% 42% -33.4%
20% -36.4% 33% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses61 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage105d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +81%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $1 $0 +11%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $2 $0 +7%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5 Mar 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5 Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5 Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $2 +$3 +136%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 Mar 12 $2 +$1 +49%
HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $1 +$1 +104%
Will AZ win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $2 +$2 +92%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Mar 12 $2 +$2 +104%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Pisa SC: O/U 3.5 Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-03-09? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Getafe CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-07? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $1 $0 +47%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 10 $1 $0 +33%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 +$1 +72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $2 +$1 +58%
Union Touarga Sports vs. Wydad Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Mar 08 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -86%
Valencia CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5 Mar 08 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $2 $0 +7%
Getafe CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 Mar 08 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 08 $2 +$1 +49%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-01? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 53m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4h
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 83d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 83d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 93d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 94d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 94d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 94d
HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 94d
Will AZ win on 2026-03-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 94d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 94d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 94d
Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 94d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 94d
Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 94d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 94d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 94d
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 94d
HNK Rijeka vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 94d
Will AZ win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 94d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 94d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 94d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 94d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 94d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 94d
Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 94d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 94d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-12? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records