Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51c1…a853 crypto 364 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$54 (-5%) realized −$53 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%139W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$118
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$132
other 15% +$19
sports 4% $0
weather 3% −$9
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 -32.9% -39.3% 36% 31% -23.7%
≤30d 355 -26.5% -33.5% 39% 35% -22.1%
≤90d 355 -26.5% -33.5% 39% 35% -22.1%
all 355 -26.5% -33.5% 39% 35% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 35% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 27% -29.5%
15% -45.7% 23% -36.3%
20% -51.0% 18% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses139 / 216
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)355 / 364
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$14 +80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $1 +$9 +894%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$7 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -41%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 4h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 25h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 A BUY 38¢ $10 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 28h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Endrick: 1+ goals AND S BUY 10¢ $2 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.39 · official $11.39 (match) · 1217 history records