trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -52.0% | -56.6% | 0% | 0% | -56.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -52.0% | -56.6% | 0% | 0% | -56.6% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -52.0% | -56.6% | 0% | 0% | -56.6% |
| all | 29 | -64.5% | -67.9% | 10% | 10% | +15.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -67.9% | 10% | +15.3% |
| 10% | -71.0% | 3% | +4.3% |
| 15% | -73.8% | 3% | -5.8% |
| 20% | -76.3% | 3% | -15.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 5¢ | $80 | $118 | +$38 (+47%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $124 | $51 | −$73 (-59%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $8 | $43 | +$35 (+441%) |
| Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $40 | $30 | −$10 (-25%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $52 | $22 | −$30 (-58%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $2 | −$2 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Jun 16 | $20 | −$10 | -52% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? | Aug 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Aug 09 | $20 | −$13 | -66% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 30 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 30 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Fed rate cut by July meeting? | Jul 30 | $6 | −$2 | -39% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jul 30 | $6 | $0 | -7% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August? | Jul 16 | $31 | −$28 | -90% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | Jul 05 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? | Jul 03 | $10 | −$4 | -40% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jul 01 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Microsoft buy TikTok? | Jul 01 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? | Jul 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | Jul 01 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | Jul 01 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | Jul 01 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will X buy TikTok? | Jul 01 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? | Jul 01 | $20 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? | Jun 28 | $18 | −$14 | -78% |
| XRP above $2.10 on June 27? | Jun 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Another US military action against Iran by Friday? | Jun 28 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 27? | Jun 26 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? | Jun 26 | $26 | +$4 | +14% |
| Another US military action against Iran by Wednesday? | Jun 26 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Another US military action against Iran by Monday? | Jun 24 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before July? | Jun 23 | $175 | +$296 | +169% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? | Jun 23 | $21 | +$4 | +21% |
| US military action against Iran by Friday? | Jun 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? | Jun 22 | $20 | −$3 | -17% |